The Neighbourhood Plan Group have undertaken an exercise called a Housing Needs Assessment as part of the work to prepare the Neighbourhood Plan.
In summary, the report identifies four separate projections of the number of dwellings needed for the Neighbourhood Plan area between 2013 and 2033 based on:
1. +164 dwellings (+8.2 a year) 2012 NuLBC population projection
2. +248 (12.4 a year) population projection adjusted for demographics
3. +464 (23.2 a year) population projection adjusted for economic market signals
4. +234 (11.7 a year) the rate of delivery of net new dwellings since the last census (2011).
Using the evidence from multiple sources it can be clearly demonstrated that the housing need in Loggerheads does not match supply. It has been assumed that the rate of increase based on population projections adjusted for demographics will apply in Loggerheads as this is similar to the evidence of growth over between the last two censuses and the evidence supports some growth but not the higher rate adjusted for economic market signals.
The parish of Loggerheads has a very specific housing need as set out in sections 5 to 7. This is for single person households for the age 60 years and above and affordable homes for young people, namely 1 or 2 bedroom houses or bungalows. Private renting can be an alternative to meet the needs of singles / smaller households, if it is affordable.
However this need is not being served by the current planning process as demonstrated in the housing supply assessment (section 18); 122 permissions since 2013 of which only 6 have been 2 bedroom houses and a further 143 houses in for planning permission as of April 2016. With the lack of a Local Plan supported by a Neighbourhood Plan the default position is that the housing supply pipeline is overloaded with more 3+ bedroom properties.
Potential supply has outweighed demand. Current permitted potential supply (122) is equivalent to 9.8 years of demand (using the adjusted for demographics projection). Even if the higher rate of need based on population projections adjusted for economic market signals is applied, current supply is equivalent to 5 years of demand.